"European defense is like the Arlésienne: everyone talks about it, but no one has seen it. Since the 1950s, the idea has continuously sprouted without ever taking root. The rise of Donald Trump has brought this issue back to the forefront. The perceived abandonment by the United States and questions about the stability of the transatlantic relationship signal the beginning of a necessary turning point. However, do Europeans have the means to implement a common defense policy?
During an extraordinary council meeting last week, the 27 EU member states adopted the 'Rearm Europe' plan, allocating a budget of 800 billion euros. This increase in spending capacity is intended to benefit Ukraine. While some advocate for 'strategic autonomy,' many still rely on American protection—a certainty that is, in fact, uncertain. Donald Trump, in addition to demanding significant financial contributions from his NATO allies, has also expressed deep mistrust. 'If the United States had a problem and we called France or other countries I won’t name, saying: We have a problem, do you think they would come to help us as they are supposed to? I’m not sure.' This underscore doubts about reciprocal commitments.
The confrontation in the Oval Office between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday, February 28, caused damage far beyond Ukraine. The trust between Europeans and the United States has been broken, raising pressing questions about the EU's military power without American support. In this context, what strategic choice does Europe have, especially given that building a new exclusively European defense model and making it operational would take years? While European leaders did not wait for Trump's election to begin taking control of their security, this effort faces a major obstacle: funding. The total defense budgets of EU member states for NATO rose from 200 billion euros in 2021 to 320 billion euros in 2024, not without some grumbling. Meanwhile, the United States contributes just under 16% to NATO's budget—approximately 450 million euros.
The latest budget projection, established during last Thursday's Brussels summit to achieve this common defense architecture, seems fanciful to some. National economies already heavily impacted by the war in Ukraine—and further strained by tariffs imposed by the Oval Office on European goods—cannot bear such a sacrifice at a time when the rapid rise of far-right parties in European politics increasingly challenges the foundations of the Schengen agreements by calling for stronger borders and more economic protectionism. While a formal divorce between Washington and Brussels has not yet occurred, it is increasingly clear that the Alliance is faltering.
Is Donald Trump's stance temporary? Even before him, American disengagements were already underway. What’s new is the rapprochement with Russia, which raises concerns and makes separation more tangible."
