Algeria and seven other countries (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan and Oman) had announced, in April and November 2023, additional voluntary adjustments to their production quotas decided within the framework of the Opec+ group (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies outside the organization), these reductions having been extended until the end of November. These voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day will now be extended by one month, to the end of December, according to the same source.
In addition, the eight countries have reiterated their collective commitment to strict compliance with the Declaration of Cooperation, including additional voluntary production adjustments, which will be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), in accordance with the conclusions of its 53rd meeting, held on April 3, 2024, the statement concludes. In fact, it would be risky to increase production beyond its current threshold; nevertheless, global demand next year would reach over 104 mb/d, with demand growth estimated at 1.2 mb/d, slightly above that of 2024 according to the IEA. According to OPEC forecasts, demand for oil is set for robust growth in 2025. The world would consume 106.2 million barrels of oil on average every day, compared with an estimated 104.4 million in 2024 and 102.1 in 2023. This rise in demand for black gold will be driven by continued solid economic activity in China and sustained growth expected in other non-OECD countries, the oil cartel stressed in a report. After several consecutive weeks of decline, crude oil prices rose significantly last week, buoyed by the rebound in financial markets. However, this recovery seemed to run out of steam at the end of last week, raising questions about its sustainability.
The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to play a key role in the up-and-down trend in crude oil prices. In terms of fundamentals, trends in the main oil market indicators, and the actions to be taken, point in the direction of supporting the foundations of market stability. In terms of forecasts, the IEA is maintaining its estimates for growth in world oil demand. In its latest monthly report, published last week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth at 1.0 Mb/d for 2024 and 2025, a very slight downward revision on previous estimates. The OPEC+ alliance's optimistic forecast of a recovery in oil demand in the face of limited supply confirms OPEC+'s persistence in its cautious approach. The strategy adopted by OPEC+, in a rather favorable economic context for the world oil market, in the direction of sustained demand, against a limited supply decided by the countries grouped within the oil alliance, should enable Brent prices to be boosted.
written for the french version by : Farid Bouyahia
